Scenario planning, originally used by
military intelligence, is increasingly adopted by today’s organisations to make
flexible long-term plans (Wikipedia). It is a good way to prepare the minds of
both the management and employees for unanticipated futures. In the current business world
where uncertainties prevail, the ability to anticipate various possible futures
is of great importance to manage change in organisation.
In my
organisation I do not know anything the management have done regarding scenario
planning during the past several years because I am just a part-time trainer
there. But as far as I know, this foreign language training institution is considering
setting up some new branches in Shanghai, which will have a great impact on the
future development of the whole organsation. I think our organisation can
incorporate the use of scenario planning in deciding where to set up new
branches.
Scenario
Planning Implementation Process:
1.
Indentify Focal Issue:
The
focal issue for our organisation is pretty obvious. This IELTS training
institution would like to set up some new branches in Shanghai.
2.
Search for Driving Forces (take an outside-in perspective):
Contextual
environment (PEST analysis method):
Political:
The government supports the development of English education and encourages
young talents to go abroad to further their studies，which provides our organisation a
good opportunities to expand our business. In addition, the relationships
between China and UK, Australia, USA, etc. are good.
Economic:
CNY is climbing against USD during these years; citizens in China can afford
studying overseas; many multinational companies set up branches in Shanghai.
Social:
an increasing number of students who would like to study oveaseas; the
increasing popularity of western culture in Shanghai.
Technological:
Many online language course providers may pose a threat to our new branches;
studnets may prefer online courses because of their convenience.
Working
environment:
Good
reputation of our institution in Shanghai;
Other
comparable institutions have successfully set up more branches;
Trainers
in our institution are willing to teach in more branches.
3.
Find uncertainties:
a.
The organization cannot find appropriate locations for new branches.
b.
The increasing popularity of online courses may threaten traditional
courses in the future. Also, universities and secondary schools may provide
foreign language courses to train their own students in the future.
4.
Formulate scenario logic:
Four situations:
a.
appropriate locations + courses from competitors
b.
appropriate locations + no courses from competitors
c.
no appropriate locations + courses from competitors
d.
no appropriate locations + no courses from competitors
5.
Strategic Analysis:
According
to the possible situations to be happened in the future, our organisation
should deeply analyse these situations and propose solutions to each of these
situation. Every situation is equally important when we do the scenario
planning. If our institution could find all the possible uncertainties and make
corresponding action plans, we can definitely set up some successful new
branches.
