Week 7: Scenario Planning----Clovis

Scenario planning, originally used by military intelligence, is increasingly adopted by today’s organisations to make flexible long-term plans (Wikipedia). It is a good way to prepare the minds of both the management and employees for unanticipated futures. In the current business world where uncertainties prevail, the ability to anticipate various possible futures is of great importance to manage change in organisation.

In my organisation I do not know anything the management have done regarding scenario planning during the past several years because I am just a part-time trainer there. But as far as I know, this foreign language training institution is considering setting up some new branches in Shanghai, which will have a great impact on the future development of the whole organsation. I think our organisation can incorporate the use of scenario planning in deciding where to set up new branches.

Scenario Planning Implementation Process:

1.     Indentify Focal Issue:

The focal issue for our organisation is pretty obvious. This IELTS training institution would like to set up some new branches in Shanghai.

2.     Search for Driving Forces (take an outside-in perspective):

Contextual environment (PEST analysis method):

Political: The government supports the development of English education and encourages young talents to go abroad to further their studies，which provides our organisation a good opportunities to expand our business. In addition, the relationships between China and UK, Australia, USA, etc. are good.

Economic: CNY is climbing against USD during these years; citizens in China can afford studying overseas; many multinational companies set up branches in Shanghai.

Social: an increasing number of students who would like to study oveaseas; the increasing popularity of western culture in Shanghai.

Technological: Many online language course providers may pose a threat to our new branches; studnets may prefer online courses because of their convenience.

Working environment:

Good reputation of our institution in Shanghai;

Other comparable institutions have successfully set up more branches;

Trainers in our institution are willing to teach in more branches.

3.     Find uncertainties:

a.     The organization cannot find appropriate locations for new branches.

b.     The increasing popularity of online courses may threaten traditional courses in the future. Also, universities and secondary schools may provide foreign language courses to train their own students in the future.

4.     Formulate scenario logic:

Four situations:

a.     appropriate locations + courses from competitors

b.     appropriate locations + no courses from competitors

c.      no appropriate locations + courses from competitors

d.     no appropriate locations + no courses from competitors

5.     Strategic Analysis:

According to the possible situations to be happened in the future, our organisation should deeply analyse these situations and propose solutions to each of these situation. Every situation is equally important when we do the scenario planning. If our institution could find all the possible uncertainties and make corresponding action plans, we can definitely set up some successful new branches.